Greenlit News & Market Insights

Category: Newsletter

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Rates Stay Elevated as Q4 Brings More Volatility

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Rates Stay Elevated as Q4 Brings More Volatility

    Rates have been moving aggressively, and the fourth quarter is shaping up to be even more unpredictable. Mortgage rates improved yesterday, but they remain near their highest levels in years. Mortgage News Daily reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.50% on October 8, down 9 basis points from the previous day.

    The 10-year Treasury yield also climbed above 5.3% earlier this week before easing back. As of Friday, it was around 5.26%. Mortgage rates generally move with the 10-year Treasury, so even modest changes in bond yields can quickly affect borrowing costs. Mortgage News Daily rate data

    The Fourth Quarter Could Be a Roller Coaster

    The third quarter was unusually volatile for rates. Mortgage pricing moved sharply as markets reacted to inflation data, employment reports, Federal Reserve expectations, government borrowing, and global events. Even when rates improved, the relief was often short-lived.

    The fourth quarter could be even more unpredictable. Markets will be watching inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, government borrowing, and the midterm elections. Investors may begin repositioning well before Election Day as they try to anticipate what the outcome could mean for taxes, spending, regulation, and monetary policy.

    That could create significant volatility through the end of the year. The market reaction may not be straightforward, and rates could move sharply in either direction as investors respond to new information.

    The Fed Is Still Considering Another Hike

    The Federal Reserve is not finished yet, but markets are already preparing for another increase. The September dot plot showed that a large majority of policymakers believe another rate hike may be needed before the end of the year.

    That possibility is already largely reflected in bond yields and mortgage rates. The next rate hike itself may not create a major shock because investors are already expecting it. The bigger risk is what happens if upcoming inflation or retail data comes in hotter than expected, causing markets to price in an even higher peak.

    The bigger outlook will be 2027. The September projections showed many officials expecting the federal funds rate to reach approximately 4.25% to 4.50% next year, which would imply at least one additional hike in 2027. Since December will bring the final dot plot of the year, markets will be watching closely to see whether policymakers maintain that higher-for-longer outlook or begin signaling a path toward rate cuts. Federal Reserve projections

    The upcoming quarter also includes two remaining FOMC meetings, scheduled for October 27–28 and December 8–9. The October meeting could determine whether the Fed follows through with another hike this year, while the December meeting will include the final dot plot of 2026.

    That December projection may be the more important event for markets. Investors will be watching to see whether the Fed continues to project rates around 4.25% to 4.50% in 2027, or begins moving back toward the possibility of rate cuts. Until then, every major inflation, employment, and consumer-spending report could change expectations for both meetings. Federal Reserve meeting calendar

    Boston Market Update

    The Boston market has continued to slow through the third quarter, although the decline is showing up more clearly in sales volume than in prices. Through Q3, Boston recorded 589 single-family sales, 249 multifamily sales, and 2,679 condo sales. Each category is slightly behind the same period last year.

    The third quarter was particularly soft for single-family homes and condos. Single-family sales fell from 256 in Q3 2025 to 239 this year, while condo sales declined from 996 to 976. Multifamily sales were nearly unchanged at 88 compared with 89 last year.

    Prices, however, have remained firm. The median single-family sale price was $892,500 in Q3, virtually unchanged from last year. The median condo price increased from $752,000 to $775,000.

    This is the pattern we have been watching. Fewer transactions are taking place, but sellers are continuing to hold onto their pricing rather than accept a loss. A slower market does not automatically mean prices are falling.

    With mortgage rates around 7.5%, the fourth quarter could be even more difficult. Higher borrowing costs may reduce the number of active buyers, but they do not automatically force sellers to lower prices. Unless demand weakens enough to change seller behavior, Boston may continue to experience fewer transactions and stubbornly high prices.

    Next Week’s Economic Calendar

    Next week will be one of the busiest weeks of the quarter. The main releases are:

    • October 13: Existing home sales
    • October 14: CPI inflation
    • October 15: PPI inflation and advance retail sales
    • October 16: Industrial production

    CPI and PPI will provide the clearest look at whether inflation is continuing to ease or proving more stubborn than expected. Retail sales will show whether consumers are still spending at a strong pace.

    Expectations will matter as much as the actual numbers. If the data comes in hotter than expected, Treasury yields and mortgage rates could rise. Softer data could provide some relief. If the numbers come in close to expectations, the market reaction may be more limited. New York Fed economic calendar

    Bottom Line

    Mortgage rates improved yesterday, but they remain elevated. The third quarter was difficult for both rates and transaction volume, and the fourth quarter could bring even more volatility as the market reacts to inflation data, consumer spending, Federal Reserve expectations, and the midterm elections.

    Boston’s numbers show that the market is slowing, but prices have not followed sales volume lower. Buyers are pulling back because of affordability, while sellers continue to hold onto their properties rather than accept lower prices.

    The next few weeks will tell us whether rates can stabilize or whether another round of hot economic data pushes them even higher.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation, and Mortgage Rates Near 7.5%

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation, and Mortgage Rates Near 7.5%

    We’re sending this week’s digest a day later than usual, but there was plenty to cover.

    Greenlit Update

    Big news from Greenlit: we upgraded the backend with a new base property type and neighborhood specification, helping the platform return the right listings when users apply more specific filters.

    We also simplified the search experience. Users can now choose the investment strategy they want to filter by. For example, someone can select Market Strategy to view properties based on market return potential.

    This is a major step toward making Greenlit’s search more useful, flexible, and aligned with how people actually evaluate real estate opportunities.

    Economic Note

    This week gave us two important economic releases: the latest PCE inflation data and Friday’s employment report.

    The August PCE report released on September 30 showed headline inflation rising 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually. Both figures were generally in line with expectations, so the market reaction was limited. BEA

    That comparison to expectations matters. Markets do not react only to whether a number is good or bad. They react to whether the actual release comes in above, below, or close to what investors were expecting. When the data is in line, much of it has already been priced into bonds and rates. When it surprises, investors have to reassess the outlook.

    Friday’s employment report released on October 2 was a much bigger surprise. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations of roughly 84,000 to 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth cooled to 3.0% annually, and previous months were revised lower. July was revised from a gain of 21,000 jobs to a loss of 10,000. BLS

    The report initially pushed Treasury yields lower because the weaker labor market should reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates again immediately. The larger bond market problem, however, has not gone away.

    The 10 year Treasury is now around 5.2%, with yields recently moving above 5.3%, levels not seen since the early 2000s. If inflation, government borrowing, and bond market supply do not cool, yields could push even higher.

    The government is issuing a significant amount of debt to fund its deficit, which means it has to compete with corporations and other borrowers for investor money. When the supply of bonds increases, investors can demand higher yields before agreeing to buy them. In simple terms, the government is offering investors a higher return to convince them to lend it money.

    Persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy, and reduced demand from traditional bond buyers are adding to that pressure. Those higher Treasury yields then flow into mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and other areas of the economy.

    The upcoming midterm elections may add another layer of uncertainty, but they are unlikely to provide much relief until the results are known. As investors try to anticipate the direction of fiscal and monetary policy, Treasury volatility could remain elevated through October and into the election.

    Next week’s calendar does not include CPI or PPI. The most important scheduled release for rates will be the FOMC meeting minutes on October 7, which could provide additional insight into how officials viewed inflation, employment, and the possibility of another rate hike. CPI is scheduled for October 14, followed by PPI on October 15.

    Boston Housing Outlook

    Boston’s housing market has been slowing since its 2021 peak:

    • 2021: 7,457 sales
    • 2022: 5,876 sales
    • 2023: 4,663 sales
    • 2024: 4,654 sales
    • 2025: 4,620 sales

    That makes 2025 the slowest completed year overall in the past decade. Current 2026 figures are already trailing last year across single family, multifamily, and condo properties. If the current pace continues, this winter could become the slowest of the decade.

    Higher mortgage rates are unlikely to help the market make up that gap. Mortgage News Daily’s daily survey shows the average top tier 30 year mortgage rate around 7.57%. Mortgage News Daily

    It is also important to separate sales volume from pricing. Fewer transactions do not necessarily mean prices are falling. Boston sale prices have generally continued to rise over the years even as annual sales volume has declined. Many sellers are choosing to hold onto their properties rather than accept a price they view as a loss, while buyers are increasingly constrained by mortgage rates and monthly payments.

    The result is a market with fewer transactions, limited affordability, and sellers who remain hesitant to reduce prices.

    Bottom line: Inflation remains sticky, employment is beginning to weaken, and the bond market is caught between expectations for a slower economy and the reality of heavy government borrowing. The weak jobs report may reduce pressure on the Fed to hike again immediately, but it has not been enough to bring long term rates down meaningfully. With mortgage rates still around 7.5%, Boston’s housing market has very little working in its favor heading into winter.orking in its favor heading into winter.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: The Fed Raises Rates and Warns of More Pressure Ahead

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: The Fed Raises Rates and Warns of More Pressure Ahead

    A quick Greenlit update: we’ve continued improving the platform’s data and backend systems, including our Florida market work and Jacksonville updates. Greenlit is being built around the same data-first approach behind this digest—making real estate information clearer, more useful, and easier to act on.

    The platform is free to use and designed for more than just investors. Whether you’re watching the market, preparing to buy or sell, or simply trying to understand what’s happening in your area, Greenlit is being built to help.

    Create your free Greenlit account and take a look at what we’re building.

    Alright, let’s get into it.

    Economic Note

    The FOMC meeting is done and the Federal Reserve raised their interest rates by 25 basis points this week, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The move was widely expected and largely already reflected in market pricing.

    The bigger story was the outlook beyond this meeting. The Fed signaled that another rate hike could still come before the end of the year, pushing the projected peak toward the 4%–4.25% range. Even more importantly, expectations for 2027 have become less optimistic. Back in July, markets were beginning to anticipate that the Fed could start lowering rates again in 2027. Now, policymakers appear more concerned that rates may need to remain elevated—or potentially move higher—for longer.

    For the housing market, that creates another year of pressure from high borrowing costs. Mortgage rates are currently around 7.19%, and those rates have a much more direct impact on buyers than the Fed’s policy rate itself.

    Historically, the fall market tends to slow, but the bigger concern this year is the level of mortgage rates. When rates were around 7% two years ago, the housing market experienced one of its weakest sales periods in generations. If rates remain elevated through the rest of this year, we could see a similar pattern: buyers pulling back from their searches, affordability deteriorating further, and transaction volume weakening into the final quarter.

    The next major domestic release to watch is the PCE inflation report on September 30. Until then, markets will likely remain focused on global news, bond-market movement, and any additional signals from Federal Reserve officials.

    Bottom line: The quarter-point hike was expected. The more important message is that the Fed is preparing markets for higher-for-longer rates, with another potential hike this year and less confidence that rate cuts will begin in 2027. If mortgage rates remain near 7% through the fall, many buyers may decide to pause or leave the market altogether.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Rates Hit Their Highest Level Since May 2025

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Rates Hit Their Highest Level Since May 2025

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  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: PCE Wipes Out the Rate Rally

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: PCE Wipes Out the Rate Rally

    We’re back again, and it’s been another pretty crazy week.

    On the Greenlit side, we’ve been so focused on getting the Florida data up and running that we never really got around to putting together a proper Greenlit Update this week.

    That doesn’t mean nothing happened though.

    We made a bunch of backend improvements that should make the platform cleaner, faster, and more reliable, and we’re still pushing forward on the Jacksonville data work. We’ll have more to share on all of that soon.

    In the meantime, if you haven’t signed up as a beta user yet, you can do that here:

    Join the Greenlit Beta

    Alright, let’s get into it.

    Economic Note

    Well, there goes that.

    Rates actually started making a little progress this week as oil prices came back down, taking some pressure off inflation expectations and helping the 10 year Treasury move lower.

    Which is still kind of crazy when you think about it.

    You wouldn’t normally think the price of oil has much to do with your mortgage rate, but when energy prices start moving aggressively, the bond market immediately starts thinking about inflation. And when inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields usually aren’t far behind.

    So when oil prices started falling earlier this week, bonds finally got a little breathing room and mortgage rates started working their way back down.

    Then PCE came out.

    Headline PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, came in at 3.7% year over year, slightly above the 3.6% economists were expecting.

    Core PCE, which removes food and energy, came in at 3.3%, right in line with expectations.

    So this wasn’t exactly a terrible report.

    But apparently “not terrible” isn’t good enough for this market right now.

    The hotter headline number was enough to wipe out most of the progress we had made, and by Friday the 10 year was back around 4.73%, pushing daily mortgage rates up to roughly 6.81%.

    And now we move on to employment.

    The August Employment Situation comes out next Friday, and after the weakness we saw in last month’s report, this one is going to get plenty of attention.

    But ultimately, all eyes are moving toward the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

    The Fed now has inflation still sitting well above its 2% target, another employment report coming next week, and CPI arriving just days before the meeting.

    So the next couple of weeks should give us a much better idea of whether the Fed is comfortable sitting still, or whether the market is about to get another reason to push rates higher.

    At this point, we’re just hoping the market finds something it actually likes.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Treasury Steps In, Rates Snap Back.

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Treasury Steps In, Rates Snap Back.

    We’re back with another Weekly Digest, and apparently the market decided it wasn’t going to give us a quiet week.

    Before we get into rates, Treasury buybacks, fuel prices, and whatever else decided to move the market this week, we actually have some Greenlit news to share.

    What’s New at Greenlit

    We released a new Greenlit Update this week covering some of the work we’ve been doing behind the scenes.

    The biggest change is our new Command Center, which takes the old search experience and turns it into one central place to search for properties, revisit favorites, manage active deals, and keep track of properties you already own.

    We’ve also been cleaning up and improving several other parts of the platform, with more updates already in progress.

    If you haven’t been on Greenlit in a little while, now might be a good time to take another look.

    Explore Greenlit →

    Now, let’s talk about this ridiculous week for rates.

    Economic Note

    Well, that didn’t last very long.

    We started the week with mortgage rates sitting around 6.69%, and after everything that happened last week, we were expecting them to remain relatively flat while the market waited for next week’s PCE report.

    Then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent decided to shake things up.

    The Treasury announced that it would significantly increase its buybacks of longer term government debt, a move aimed at relieving some of the pressure we’ve been seeing on long term Treasury yields.

    And for about a day, it worked.

    The 10 year dropped pretty aggressively following the announcement, giving us what looked like a legitimate shot at another meaningful decline in mortgage rates.

    But the problem is that Treasury buybacks don’t make everything else happening in the world disappear.

    Fuel prices remain elevated, inflation concerns haven’t gone anywhere, government borrowing remains enormous, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to hang over the market.

    So almost as quickly as the 10 year dropped, it turned around and climbed right back up.

    By the end of the week, we were essentially back where we started, with mortgage rates around 6.72% and the 10 year actually trading slightly higher than it was before the Treasury announcement.

    So what did we learn?

    Apparently even a surprise move from the Treasury Department can only keep this market optimistic for about 24 hours.

    That brings us to next week and the PCE inflation report.

    At this point, the market seems to be having a hard time holding onto any good news, which makes next week’s report even more important. If PCE comes in better than expected, we may finally get another legitimate push downward in rates.

    If it disappoints?

    After watching the market completely erase this week’s rally, we wouldn’t be surprised to see rates move higher again.

    We’ll find out next week.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Markets Move with CPI and PPI Reports!

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Markets Move with CPI and PPI Reports!

    We’re trying to get back on our normal schedule, and apparently that’s a little harder than we expected.

    Unfortunately, we did not release any updates to Greenlitres.com this week, but that doesn’t mean we weren’t working. We’re currently in the middle of a major UI update to the search experience, along with improvements to several other pages. We expect to start rolling those changes out early next week.

    Now, for the news.

    Economic Note

    The market has been on edge after last week’s employment report, with investor movement seemingly on pause as everyone waited for some guidance from this month’s CPI and PPI reports.

    Well, those figures finally came out, and they’re giving us clear indications of exactly how the rest of the year is going to play out…

    Just kidding. We still have no idea where things are going.

    Economic reports used to feel like they gave us at least a little insight into what was coming next. Things felt somewhat predictable. Now, they more or less just tell us where we are, or where we’ve already been.

    Still, knowing where things stand matters, especially when we’re trying to understand where the real estate market may be heading.

    So let’s get into it.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% from June to July, bringing headline inflation to 3.4% year over year. This came in right in line with economists’ expectations and initially helped keep some downward pressure on rates.

    Digging a little deeper into the report, core CPI increased by 0.2% for the month and 2.5% for the year. One of the more encouraging pieces of the report was a 1.5% decline in energy prices, right in time for the turn of the season.

    The Producer Price Index (PPI) brought us even better news.

    There was virtually no change in PPI for July, beating expectations for a roughly 0.2% increase. Goods prices actually fell 0.7%, helped significantly by the shift in energy prices.

    If we dive deeper into the figures, though, we find that the measure excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.4%. So we’re not exactly out of the deep end yet, and we’re still very much at the mercy of volatile energy prices.

    Either way, these inflation reports brought some much needed optimism to the market.

    So things were looking really good this week! But then we remembered something.

    We completely failed to mention last week that we also had the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report being released this week. This morning, actually.

    Retail sales aren’t something we pay nearly as much attention to as CPI, PPI, or PCE, but they absolutely can move the markets, including the bond market, which plays a major role in where daily mortgage rates ultimately end up.

    And when we get a weaker than expected retail sales report, we would normally expect to see downward pressure on Treasury yields, including the 10 year.

    Economists were expecting retail sales to increase by around 0.1%.

    Instead, they came in at a 0.6% decline.

    There are a few important caveats here, and economists are already pointing at some of them.

    The first is, believe it or not, Amazon Prime Day shifting from July to June this year.

    We know how crazy that sounds, but online sales fell sharply in July, so there is a pretty decent argument that moving one of the largest online shopping events of the year into the previous month pulled some spending forward.

    The other, of course, is the craziness we’ve seen in fuel prices.

    Maybe people are driving less. Maybe they’re spending more at the pump and less everywhere else. Who knows.

    Regardless of the reasoning, the Treasury yields initially reacted pretty much how we would expect. Yields moved lower following the weaker retail report.

    That move didn’t last very long.

    As the day went on, the 10 year reversed course and wiped out much of the progress we had made throughout the week.

    So after getting what looked like three fairly positive economic reports for rates, we’re somehow ending the week pretty close to where we started.

    Sounds about right.

    With no major inflation reports due next week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see rates slowly work their way back down as the market continues to digest this week’s economic data, barring any major world events, of course.

    Our next major inflation report is PCE, which we consider the most impactful of the bunch, and that’s scheduled for August 26th.

    Until then, we’re not expecting any massive directional move unless something unexpected gives the market a reason to make one.

    Then again, apparently the market doesn’t really care what we expect.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit

  • Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Real Estate Insights & Economic Updates

    Greenlit’s Weekly Digest: Real Estate Insights & Economic Updates

    Welcome back. What was once the Popular Properties newsletter is now Greenlit’s Weekly Digest. It’s been about eight months since our last newsletter, and quite a bit has changed.

    User trials for Greenlit have begun, and we’re excited to have readers begin using Greenlit to search for and manage real estate investments. We’ve also launched Greenlit News & Market Insights, where we’ll be publishing throughout the week.

    Rather than flood your inbox with every new article, we’ll send one digest each Friday highlighting the biggest stories, where rates and markets stand, and what we’re watching next.

    And now, back to our regularly scheduled report. Just one day late.

    Economic Update

    This week, we received the July employment report, and it came in far weaker than expected. The economy lost 23,000 jobs, compared with expectations for a gain of 83,000, so the miss was substantial. Markets responded and mortgage rates moved lower to 6.74%, their lowest level since July 20. Of course, we hate that weaker employment can be good news for rates, but that’s the strange relationship we’re dealing with.

    Next week we’ll get CPI and PPI. As always, both reports have the potential to move rates, but unless the numbers miss expectations dramatically, we don’t expect a move nearly as large as what we saw this week. Current inflation projections are pointing higher, so our bet is on a slight increase in rates. But after this week’s employment surprise, we’ve been reminded just how quickly expectations can change.

    Market Reports

    Greenlit Updates

    Greenlit is now in user trials.

    Explore the platform, test the investment tools, and see how we’re building a better way to find and manage real estate.

    Explore Greenlit